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CleanTech Boston's MITei Talk Recap: Sue Tierney

February 3, 2010 - 12:53pm — admin

Last night, Dr. Sue Tierney (Managing Pricipal, Analysis Group) talked to the MIT Energy Initiative about "Why modernizing our energy technologies is so hard, but worth the effort."  Her slides are posted HERE, but here are some highlights from her talk:

  • Electricity use will grow to 42% of energy portfolio by 2025
  • 2/3 of produced BTUs go towards energy losses and are never delivered.
  • US has 1/4 of world's coal supplies (a 400 year supply in a business-as-usual case), but this leads to many problems
  • Map of Coal-fired Power Plants in the United States (VIA Powermag.com)
    • 25% of plants are older than 40 years
    • 50% of plants are older than 30 years
      • Because so many current plants are old and the capital investments are paid off, and new plants have to meet new control requirements, it is hard to shut down old plants
    • Cheap coal-plant generation in the middle of the country leads to schizms between party members when it comes to energy and job creation policy
  • Many competing groups at play in the field
    • There are 3 main definitions of modernization of energy technologies according to the federal government 
    • 29 States with Renewable Energy Portfolios
    • There are countless committees and work groups at the federal and state levels that all have a piece of the pie.
    • SEC announcement on 1/27/10 - Companies should disclose climate risk (NYTimes article)McKinsey Cost Curve - US Mid-range Abatement
    • There is no cop to police  legislation that are in direct conflict - conflict must be solved through litigation.
  • Substantial increases in $/MWh on the horizon (80-210% increase by 2050) [Steven Specker, EPRI, 8/3/09]
  • Hurdles facing new technologies
    • Main problem facing new technologies: "Yesterday's technology is really sticky"
    • Ranges of estimated carbon prices go from $16 to $93 in 2015; this leads to inability for businesses and investors to make adequate plans and hedges.
    • Additional uncertainty around policy - Cap and Trade vs. a tax makes a huge operational difference
    • Regulated Utilities face risks in recovering costs for new capital outlay
    • Unregulated generators bear the burden of proof of fiscal stability to fund new projects
    • Many states could face a drastic rise in retail electricity rates
      • Mandatory carbon controls could push rates through the roof
    • Economy is built around cheap energy in many parts of the country. If/when a real proce gets put on Carbon, there will be a dramatic shift for many areasEstimated ACES impact on retail rates
  • "The cost of modernizing energy technologies is trade-offs."
    • Policy makers want changes without adverse effects
    • Can you build new transmission lines without increasing rates?
    • Can you make federal loan guarantees without increasing taxpayer risk?
  • "It is easy for the government to authorize new research, but harder for them to fund it."
  • Many chicken vs. egg problems in the energy sector
    • More electric vehicles vs. location/time based electricity pricing
    • Transmission infrastructure vs. Wind Farms

Dr. Tierney additionally summarized all of these hurdles with a plea to innovators and entrepreneurs to continue working, and know that there is an immense need for new solutions to make it to the marketplace.